Amid widespread attention on the Ripple Swell conference, crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) has published a look at XRP’s historical price action across the seven-day window immediately following every Ripple Swell event. Spanning nine consecutive years, the data largely points toward bearish results.
Nine Years Under the Microscope
By tracking XRP’s closing value right when each Swell conference concluded and checking it seven days later, EGRAG CRYPTO found that six out of the nine years yielded negative returns. Only three years resulted in gains, giving the post-Swell timeframe a 66.7% historical bearish frequency.
Across all nine years, the average 7-year—or rather, 7-day—return rests at -3.07%. The most severe downturn occurred in 2023, when XRP sank -8.21% from $0.6666 down to $0.6119. Conversely, 2022 marked the best year, with XRP climbing +5.28% from $0.3817 to $0.4019.
#XRP – RIPPLE SWELL – MATH AND NUMBERS:
9 YEARS OF DATA! THE NUMBERS TELL AN INTERESTING STORY!
With #RippleSwell 2026 approaching, I analyzed #XRP's performance 7 DAYS AFTER EACH SWELL EVENT ENDED!
HISTORICAL #XRP RETURNS:
2017: $0.2169 → $0.2016 (−7.09%)
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) October 26, 2026
Year-by-Year Price Action
The complete dataset highlights a recurring pattern of bearish pressure in the wake of the conference. XRP dropped -7.09% from $0.2169 to $0.2016 in 2017, and fell another -7.13% from $0.5169 to $0.4800 in 2018. A -5.49% slide followed in 2019, before 2020 posted a +4.56% gain as one of the rare positive years.
In 2021, the asset dipped -7.56%. Following the 2022 upswing, 2023 brought the sharpest drop. XRP then retreated -4.09% in 2024, moving from $0.5482 to $0.5258, though a historic rally 500% rally from late 2024 materialized shortly afterward. The most recent data point from 2025 recorded a mild +2.14% gain.
Price Projections for 2026
Mapping this historical background onto XRP’s current value of $1.29, EGRAG CRYPTO formulated two separate outlooks. Should XRP follow the typical post-Swell drop of -3.07%, the price targets $1.25. If it mirrors the worst historical decline of -8.21%, the price drops to $1.18.
The analyst identified $1.25 as the key support level requiring close observation. “If it breaks, the bearish scenario gains strength,” EGRAG CRYPTO pointed out. Successfully defending that mark and pushing past resistance would alter the technical outlook.
November 5 is the Target Date
Swell 2026 takes place from October 27 through 29 in New York City. November 5 has been designated by the analyst as the critical date to watch for price direction following the event. EGRAG CRYPTO emphasized prudence, stating, “Historical statistics are NOT guarantees, and nine events are a small sample.” Ultimately, the numbers serve as a reference point rather than a definitive prediction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the historical frequency of bearish returns after Ripple Swell?
According to EGRAG CRYPTO’s analysis across nine consecutive years, 6 of the 9 years yielded negative returns in the seven days following a Ripple Swell conference, giving a bearish frequency of 66.7%.
What were the best and worst performing years on record?
The worst post-Swell performance happened in 2023, when XRP dropped -8.21% from $0.6666 to $0.6119. The best performance occurred in 2022, with a +5.28% gain that raised the price from $0.3817 to $0.4019.
What are the 2026 price projections for XRP based on this data?
Based on a starting price of $1.29, if XRP drops by the average historical post-Swell decline of -3.07%, it will land at $1.25. If it experiences the worst historical drop of -8.21%, it will fall to $1.18.
When does Ripple Swell 2026 take place and when is the key date to watch?
Ripple Swell 2026 is scheduled for October 27 through 29 in New York City, and the analyst has targeted November 5 for monitoring post-event price resolution.
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Written by
Elara Winter
