Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) has been monitoring a convergence of signals across the XRP market that point toward a potential drop to $0.98. His evaluation encompasses whale behavior, exchange balances, and a technical chart pattern carrying significant weight for the asset’s near-term trajectory.
Large Holders Are Reducing Exposure
Martinez observed that several of the most substantial whales on the XRP Ledger appear to be scaling back their positions. He pointed out that the count of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP decreased from 351 down to 339 over the course of a few weeks.
The analyst mentioned that this drop increases the likelihood of mounting selling pressure. A reduction in the number of active large-holder wallets within that tier represents a noticeable change in how XRP supply is distributed.
2/5 Some of the largest whales on the XRP Ledger appear to be reducing their exposure.
The number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million $XRP has fallen from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks.
That decline raises the possibility of growing selling pressure. pic.twitter.com/xgh8WVtJrD
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 25, 2026
Exchange Balances Are Rising
He subsequently pointed to an increase in exchange-held XRP. Martinez reported that the volume of $XRP residing on exchanges grew from 11.003 billion to approximately 11.05 billion over the preceding week, representing roughly 50 million additional tokens sitting on trading platforms.
He noted that if large holders persist in transferring tokens to exchanges, additional supply could become ready for liquidation. Higher exchange balances frequently come before heightened selling activity within cryptocurrency markets.
A Key Technical Level to Watch
Turning toward technical analysis, Martinez singled out $1.26 as a crucial support level. He explained that XRP has maintained a channel boundary at that specific price point since August.
He stated that a breakdown beneath that support “could first send XRP toward $1.11.” In his assessment, the channel pattern ultimately targets $0.98, which is roughly 22% lower than the $1.26 mark.
The Bearish Case Comes into Focus
The analyst’s 4-hour chart for XRP displayed price action compressing close to the lower edge of the channel. With the $1.26 threshold drawing attention, the chart demonstrated how proximity to that support gains importance in light of the on-chain metrics previously discussed.
Martinez then encapsulated the bearish outlook by outlining three main drivers: “fewer large-holder wallets, elevated exchange balances, and a break below $1.26,” with each factor compounding the others.
The blend of shrinking whale wallet counts, rising token supplies on exchanges, and a weakening technical foundation builds a solid argument for downward pressure on XRP in the near future. Whether the $1.26 level manages to hold will be vital in deciding if the $0.98 target is ultimately realized.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Ali Martinez’s projected price target for XRP if bearish trends continue?
Ali Martinez’s analysis points to a potential drop to $0.98, with an initial interim target of $1.11 if support breaks.
What key technical support level is XRP currently testing?
The analyst has identified $1.26 as a critical support level that has formed a channel boundary since August.
How are large holders (whales) behaving according to the on-chain data?
Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP decreased from 351 to 339 over the span of a few weeks, indicating that large holders are reducing their exposure.
What is happening to exchange balances for XRP?
XRP balances on exchanges increased from 11.003 billion to about 11.05 billion over the course of a week, adding roughly 50 million tokens to trading platforms.
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Written by
Elara Winter
