Cryptocurrency analyst EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) has drawn attention to XRP’s monthly chart, noting that the setup he observes bears a familiar appearance. The Stochastic RSI is once again nearing a threshold that has historically preceded powerful bullish movements for the digital asset.
A Pattern With a Track Record
The analyst stated, “History might be setting up to RHYME AGAIN!” He highlighted three separate instances on the monthly chart where XRP’s S-RSI dipped close to the 20 level. The first occurred in 2020, followed by the second in 2023. On each occasion, the oscillator rebounded, and XRP responded with a substantial price surge.
The initial instance propelled XRP to $1.96 in 2021. The second resulted in the 500% rally in late 2024. Currently, in 2026, the S-RSI has returned to that exact same zone. He designated each of these instances as a “Fake Out” on the chart, a term denoting the appearance of a momentum breakdown that ultimately reverses direction.
#XRP – S-RSI FAKEOUT OR ONE FINAL TRIP HOME?
GUYS, LOOK AT THE MONTHLY CHART!
History might be setting up to RHYME AGAIN!
2020: S-RSI recovered from oversold territory → BULLISH EXPANSION!
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) November 13, 2026
The HOME Trendline
A white ascending trendline spans the monthly chart, which EGRAG CRYPTO refers to as “HOME.” This line has acted as long-term support across several market cycles. XRP currently trades near $1.02, and his preferred outlook features a retest of that trendline around the $0.90 to $1 range.
From that point, he anticipates the S-RSI will confirm a bullish crossover. Recovering $1.20 to $1.25 would then indicate the commencement of the subsequent bullish expansion, according to his analysis.
Where He Stands
The analyst maintains a clear stance regarding his conviction. He writes that this “could be another S-RSI FAKEOUT rather than the beginning of a prolonged bearish reversal.” He treats this historical rhythm as a plausible setup rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Additionally, he defines a strict boundary for risk. A “decisive monthly breakdown below HOME would challenge this thesis.” This specific level acts as the structural foundation for the entire framework. Provided XRP maintains its position above it, his bullish outlook remains valid.
Watching for Confirmation
EGRAG CRYPTO is careful not to call a bottom. He pointed out that oversold metrics do not serve as proof that a bottom is secured. Price action must materialize before the hypothesis can be validated. While the S-RSI signal offers a condition worth tracking, it does not guarantee a specific result.
His three-phase scenario demands a trendline retest, confirmation of an S-RSI crossover, and a subsequent recovery of the $1.20 to $1.25 band. Monthly chart data shows that XRP has successfully navigated this pattern previously. Whether 2026 yields an identical outcome relies entirely on how prices react to the HOME trendline.
FAQs
What is the “HOME” trendline on XRP’s chart?
The “HOME” trendline is a long-term white ascending support line on XRP’s monthly chart that has historically acted as support across multiple market cycles.
What does the S-RSI “Fake Out” mean for XRP?
A “Fake Out” refers to a situation where momentum appears to show a bearish breakdown, but the indicator ultimately reverses and leads to a strong bullish price expansion, as seen in 2020 and 2023.
What price levels are critical for XRP according to the analyst’s thesis?
The analyst is watching a potential trendline retest between $0.90 and $1, a reclaim of $1.20 to $1.25 to signal the next expansion, and a strict warning level below “HOME,” where a decisive monthly breakdown would invalidate the thesis.
Does the analyst claim a market bottom has been reached?
No, EGRAG CRYPTO explicitly cautions against calling a bottom prematurely, stating that oversold conditions require confirming price action before the bullish setup is validated.
Explained in this article
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Written by
Elara Winter
