Prominent analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has directed the XRP community’s attention toward a video he insists every holder needs to watch.
As XRP navigates a vital technical zone after several weeks of price action, the analyst has detailed his observations regarding the asset’s current trajectory and potential price implications.
A Pattern That Has Played Out Before
In the opening segments of the video, ChartNerd references June 2022. During that period, XRP established its cycle bottom before staging a 90% rally toward the blue 50-week EMA. Prices subsequently consolidated above and between the red 20 EMA and the blue 50 EMA for eight to nine weeks ahead of a rejection. Losing the 20 EMA ultimately forced XRP back down toward its range lows.
That price action produced a macro double bottom that preserved its underlying structure and sparked a breakout. ChartNerd points out that this historical setup closely mirrors current market developments. He highlights that XRP formed a bottom in August at $0.98, climbed toward the 50-week EMA, and has since spent 10 weeks positioned underneath it.
$XRP holders must watch https://t.co/1pxf3J59ES
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ChartNerd
(@ChartNerdTA) November 7, 2026
The 50-Week EMA Remains the Key Level
ChartNerd has maintained a consistent outlook over recent months, stating, “There’s no push higher until this moving average is cleared.” He adds that surrendering the 20 EMA clears a path back toward $1 or the lower $1 territory he has been tracking.
The structure of the ongoing move closely mirrors 2022, according to the analyst: XRP bottomed, surged into the 50-week EMA, and faced rejection. That sequence has repeated itself, meaning the ultimate resolution hinges on XRP’s ability to defend the $1.14 to $1.16 range.
Two Scenarios ChartNerd is Watching
Should XRP successfully defend the $1.14 to $1.16 zone and print a higher low, it may avoid revisiting the August lows, representing a more favorable outcome.
At the same time, ChartNerd stresses that the recent rejection from the EMAs carries weight. He characterizes it as “quite a strong rejection” and warns traders that they must stay prepared for a potential pullback toward the daily chart’s double bottom target. That level is positioned at $1.04, which he notes was recently breached on the daily timeframe.
What ChartNerd Expects Now
ChartNerd keeps the door open for additional downside, emphasizing that the breakdown in structure serves as a warning signal to remain vigilant. The 2022 parallel demonstrates that even following a steep correction after a 90% advance, the market maintained its structure, forged a double bottom, and executed a breakout.
Ultimately, he believes the current market setup is tracking a remarkably similar trajectory, with the two primary possibilities being a higher low near $1.14 to $1.16 or a descent back down to $1.04.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ChartNerd?
ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) is a well-known market analyst who provides technical analysis and price updates for digital assets like XRP.
What key moving average is XRP struggling to clear?
XRP has been blocked by the 50-week EMA, spending 10 weeks beneath it following a rally from its August bottom.
What are the two main price scenarios ChartNerd is monitoring for XRP?
ChartNerd is watching for either the formation of a higher low in the $1.14 to $1.16 range or a potential pullback down to the $1.04 daily double bottom target.
How does the current market structure compare to 2022?
The current setup closely mirrors June 2022, when XRP bottomed, rallied into the 50-week EMA, faced a rejection, and eventually tested lower range levels while preserving macro structure.
Written by
Elara Winter
